The spring Canadian housing market ended with the aggregate price falling slightly from last year, Royal LePage said, a possible sign the slow start to the year is being shaken off... just a little later than expected.

In its Q2 2026 home price update and market forecast released Tuesday morning, Toronto-based Royal LePage said the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased by 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $814,900. Quarter-over-quarter, the price increased by 0.2 per cent.

In April, the real estate franchiser said the spring market was lagging, despite the season typically being a bustling time for activity. Royal LePage blamed the uneasy economic and political conditions from conflict in the Middle East in particular.

The spring surge was likely delayed to late May and June, not cancelled, Anne-Elise Cugliari-Allegritti, vice-president of research and communications at Royal LePage, said in an interview with RENX Homes. 

“There’s not a lack of interest, but in fact a lack of urgency,” she said. “We know that buyers are out there – they are interested, they are shopping around – but they don’t feel the need to rush.”

Markets converging on prices

Looking at 65 of Canada’s largest real estate markets, Royal LePage found the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased by 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $862,400. For a condo, the median price fell by 2.9 per cent to $574,800 over the same period.

The price gap between the most expensive and most affordable markets was seen narrowing. The aggregate price of a home fell by almost five per cent year-over-year in the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Vancouver Area, hitting over $1.1 million.

Prices in other large markets such as Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Winnipeg rose or stayed relatively flat. The aggregate home price in the Greater Montreal Area increased 4.9 per cent year over year to $650,500, for example, and decreased by 0.2 per cent to $695,300 in Calgary.

Some cities were probably undervalued for years, Cugliari-Allegritti said, and the Covid-19 pandemic real estate boom shocked the markets to where they should have been priced.

“It seems to be this equilibrium is happening. The most heated markets, the most expensive markets, have cooled to a slightly more comfortable place,” she said. “Whereas markets that were historically super affordable have caught up to the rest of the country.”

Buyers delaying decisions, not stopping

There are indications the spring housing market is blooming later than usual based on several regions carrying momentum into the summer, Royal LePage said. There is the sense the spring surge was was pushed to the summer, Cugliari-Allegritti said.

While the economic and political uncertainty has not subsided, the fundamentals of the housing market and Canadian economy remain robust, Cugliari-Allegritti said. The Bank of Canada has been stable, the country’s job market has been resilient, and housing prices in the most expensive cities are trending down.

Thus, prospective homebuyers do not feel urgency to buy a home now, can negotiate, and are willing to wait it out.

“As time goes by, more and more people will get more comfortable with the new reality and come off the sidelines,” Cugliari-Allegritti said.

Though the conditions favour buyers today, Royal LePage noted the continued presence of economic uncertainty.

Inflation rose from April to May, pushed primarily by increasing energy prices. Interest rates could be raised to control inflation. Another potential stressor is the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement negotiations which would likely apply more pressure on businesses.

However, the economy has stabilized enough where if the Bank of Canada had to raise interest rates, it would likely be a small uptick and not significantly impact consumers, Cugliari-Allegritti said.

“As people accept the new normal, we’re going to start to see more and more people come off the sidelines as they do find a property that really suits them,” she said.

Cugliari-Allegritti forecasts a slightly active housing market in the fall, but does not anticipate pre-COVID levels of activity and for 2026 to be a slower year overall for housing.

Royal LePage is forecasting the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase by two per cent in Q4 2026 compared to the same quarter last year.