Tariffs have been hard to avoid lately. Over the past month, Canada-US trade talks have gone from stalled to nearly there to a full-on tariff fight. There's been a lot to follow, and chances are most people aren’t keeping up with every headline. 

When it comes to housing, it’s not one tariff announcement that matters most to Canadians.

Over the last year, ongoing headlines around the conflict in Iran and the tariff fight have been holding would-be buyers firmly on the sidelines, slowing down activity across the country, which has led to lower prices that haven’t necessarily pushed people back into the market. 

At this point, many Canadians have accepted that home prices are no longer a guaranteed investment, and that waiting to buy isn’t necessarily a bad thing. 

With so much going on, it’s hard to know what’s actually worth paying attention to. We break down what's really changed for buyers, who’s feeling the biggest impact, and what signals matter more than the next headline.

How we got here

The tariff story between Canada and the U.S. has changed pretty quickly over the last couple of months.

In late July, Canada introduced a 25 per cent tariff on certain imported cabinets and vanities from the U.S. By late August, the U.S. announced tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, and Canada responded with a new set of counter-tariffs, taking effect September 8, on the same amount of American goods.

These new counter-tariffs, ranging from 15 per cent to 50 per cent, hit hundreds of products, including steel, dairy, appliances, furniture, and electronics, with steel and aluminum jumping all the way up to 50 per cent.

When people aren’t sure where prices, rates and everyday costs are headed, it's harder to feel good about a big financial commitment such as purchasing a home.

At this point, more people are choosing to wait and see rather than jump into something that is becoming more and more of a question mark every day, and the back-and-forth on tariffs is just another reason people are taking a step back. For a long time, the thinking was “buy now, because prices will only keep going up,” but now, people are more willing to wait. 

No single headline is going to suddenly change the math on someone's mortgage, but when you have one uncertainty after another, it can chip away at the confidence people need to make a big decision like buying a home. It’s not just what tariffs might do to costs, but how all of this uncertainty is affecting the people trying to decide what to do next. 

What tariffs mean for building costs in housing

Steel, aluminum, appliances and cabinets all play a role in the cost of building or renovating a home, so when those material costs go up, someone has to absorb these costs. People interested in new builds and renovating will likely feel the impact first, since these materials are a part of the budget from the start. 

Pre-construction is a little more complicated.

Condo prices in that market have already fallen significantly, while builders are also dealing with higher costs to complete their projects. New condo sales in the GTA hit a 35-year low earlier this year (only 246 new condos were sold across the Greater Toronto/Hamilton area, which is down 54 per cent compared to 2025 and 94 per cent below the 10-year average), and some projects have not launched at all. For buyers, that can mean more uncertainty around the final cost of a home. For builders, it can put even more pressure on already-tight project budgets. 

If you’re looking at a pre-construction property, make sure you read the agreement carefully before signing and pay closer attention to clauses around rising costs and construction delays, especially when tariffs can change the price of materials almost overnight. It’s worth an extra read to really understand who is responsible for those additional costs before you commit. 

Don’t forget about interest rates

The Bank of Canada has kept its rate steady this past month, but there’s still a lot we don’t know about where things are headed, especially with tariffs continuing to change. Even if rates come down, that doesn’t necessarily mean buyers will feel ready to jump back in. If tariffs push up the cost of goods or start to affect jobs, people may want to wait until they have a better sense of what's ahead. 

Instead of trying to guess what rates or prices will do next, it can be more useful to look at what you can comfortably afford right now. If you’re thinking about buying, a mortgage broker can help you look at your options and figure out what makes sense for your situation. 

Provinces face different realities

Toronto’s housing market has been slowing down, with home prices and listings both lower than last year. In August, home sales were down about two per cent compared with the same time last year.

Ontario has a large steel, auto and manufacturing sector, which means tariffs could affect more than the cost of materials. If companies have to deal with higher costs or less demand, that can start to affect hiring, jobs and how comfortable people feel making a big purchase like a home. 

Vancouver is going through similar difficulties, with tariffs on steel, aluminum and softwood lumber pushing up construction costs. Home sales there have also slowed compared with last year. 

While it’s worth paying attention to what’s happening with tariffs nationally, it’s just as important to look at what’s happening in your own market.

Local prices, inventory, employment and demand can tell you much more about what it means for your next housing decision. Not all markets are equal right now, so perhaps a buyer would consider certain areas outside of their top choice if it means getting into the market.

For sellers, it’s important to price based on today’s market, not what a similar home sold for a few years ago. It's all about being realistic when it comes to your home's current value, or you risk simply lowering the price over time as buyers seek out more competitive prices. 

What should you actually be watching?

The next thing to keep an eye on is the upcoming trade agreement review and whether we start to get more clarity around where Canada-U.S. trade is headed. Until then, there will probably be plenty of tariff headlines to sort through. 

For buyers and sellers, don't lose sleep fixating on things you can’t control.

Instead, try to figure out what you can afford. Buyers should understand their closing costs, monthly payments and get pre-approved if they’re thinking about buying. Sellers should have a clear idea of what their home is worth today, as well as what they’ll owe on their mortgage and the costs of selling.

If you’re renovating or considering a pre-construction property, make sure you understand how changes in construction costs could affect your budget. 

There’s a lot influencing the market right now, from home prices and interest rates to construction costs, jobs and tariffs. You don’t have to wait for everything to settle down before making a move, but it’s important to understand how the current market could affect you and your finances.